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"In my view, Barnet and Camden is very likely to fall, as it requires a swing of only 5.5% to Labour, and incumbent Brian Coleman is unpopular among London Conservatives."Whilst this is not exactly a surprise for anyone in Barnet, it is certainly the first concrete sign that the cracks are appearing in the Brian Coleman campaign strategy. The pundits I trust above all others are those who are involved in gambling. If and when Coleman loses his seat, it will be interesting to see how the Barnet Tories react to what was such an obvious cliff edge to drive off.
It's not as if any of them really think he's popular. They all seem to have adopted the Ostritch position to his impending demise, burying their heads in the sand and saying "Of course Brian will win". Even the quite sensible ones seem to have caught the bug. What they forget is that listening to the views of Lynton Crosby is far less likely to give you the real picture than listening to ordinary instinctive Conservatives in Barnet saying how heartily sick of the man they are.
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